Bank of Japan Naikkan Suku Bunga Utama Menjadi 1 Persen

Bank of Japan resmi menaikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar seperempat persentase poin dari 0,75 persen menjadi 1 persen pada Selasa, 16 Juni 2026, demi meredam tekanan harga akibat lonjakan biaya energi global.

Dilansir dari Reuters, AP News, dan BBC, kenaikan ke level tertinggi dalam 31 tahun ini dipicu oleh lonjakan harga minyak mentah akibat perang Iran yang menekan perekonomian Jepang sebagai negara importir bahan bakar.

Langkah pengetatan moneter ini diambil saat Gubernur Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, absen karena harus menjalani perawatan di rumah sakit akibat infeksi kista hati.

Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, yang menggantikan posisi Ueda dalam konferensi pers, memberikan penjelasan mengenai ketidakpastian pasokan komoditas global saat ini.

"Compared with our previous meeting in April, the U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum. That is a welcome move. Having said that, there is uncertainty on the pace of improvement in distribution (of oil)." kata Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Uchida kemudian memaparkan perkembangan kondisi domestik terkait risiko pembengkakan inflasi yang melampaui target bank sentral.

"Compared with the previous meeting, the risk of a sharp deterioration in the economy has diminished. On the other hand, price rises are broadening, and there is a risk that underlying inflation may deviate from our target." ujar Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Bank sentral menekankan pentingnya menjaga stabilitas harga di tengah situasi ekonomi yang mulai menunjukkan tren pemulihan tersebut.

"With underlying inflation approaching 2%, it's important to ensure we achieve our target stably." tutur Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Ia juga menambahkan bahwa tren kenaikan upah pekerja di Jepang saat ini sudah mulai berjalan beriringan dengan target pergerakan harga pasar.

"Wage growth is moving roughly in line with levels consistent with our price target. The mechanism by which wages and prices rise in tandem is becoming embedded." ucap Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Terkait penentuan kebijakan ke depan, bank sentral mengaku masih kesulitan menggunakan estimasi angka yang ada karena rentangnya yang terlalu luas.

"Even our latest estimates are made in a very wide band, which makes it hard for us to use this in setting policy. We'll have to gauge the neutral level by looking at how our rate hikes affect Japan's financial environment." sebut Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Pihak Bank of Japan pun terus memantau pergerakan nilai tukar yen terhadap dolar AS yang belakangan ini melemah hingga menyentuh level 160 yen per dolar AS.

"We're always watching currency moves closely. We don't directly target exchange rates in guiding monetary policy. But we engage in monetary policy discussions on the view that currency moves have a crucial impact on economic and price developments. With companies' wage- and price-setting behaviour becoming more active, the pass-through (of the weak yen) may have a bigger impact on underlying inflation." kata Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Menurut Uchida, penyesuaian arah kebijakan moneter baru akan dilakukan secara berbeda setelah suku bunga mencapai level netral bagi perekonomian.

"It's hard to judge now when our policy rate will achieve levels deemed neutral to the economy ... Once we reach that level and financial conditions are no longer accommodative, we will guide monetary policy in a different approach." ujar Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Uchida menegaskan bahwa langkah menaikkan suku bunga ini sudah selaras dengan program-program yang dijalankan oleh pemerintah Jepang.

"Today's decision was based on the need to address broadening price rises and the risk of underlying inflation deviating from our target. This would help Japan's economy achieve sustainable growth and thus is consistent with what the government is doing." tutur Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Dalam jangka pendek, perkembangan geopolitik di Timur Tengah tetap menjadi salah satu fokus utama dalam mitigasi risiko ke depan.

"We will look at economic, price and financial developments, particularly with an eye on the Middle East situation, for the time being. We'll look at whether the economy and prices are moving in line with our forecasts, as well as risks. With underlying inflation approaching 2%, we need to be mindful of upward price risks. We will guide policy so that we won't fall behind the curve." ucap Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Penurunan risiko pelemahan ekonomi domestik serta adanya transmisi biaya bisnis ke harga konsumen menjadi pembeda utama dari pertemuan sebelumnya.

"The main difference between our previous meeting and this one is that downside risks to Japan's economy have subsided significantly ... Additionally, we have seen steady pass-through of costs in business-to-business prices, which led us to be more vigilant to inflation risks." sebut Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Ketika ditanya mengenai pengaruh kesepakatan AS-Iran terhadap target inflasi, Uchida menyatakan deeskalasi di Timur Tengah akan menjadi faktor kunci penilaian.

"That's hard to say. We didn't change our baseline view on the timing today. There are factors that could push forward the timing, and there are those that could delay the timing. How the de-escalation in the Middle East could affect Japan's inflation outlook will be a key factor in judging future monetary policy." kata Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Mengenai kebijakan obligasi, Bank of Japan memilih menunda pengurangan pembelian demi memberikan waktu bagi investor domestik untuk melakukan penyesuaian.

"Bond market function has improved significantly, so there was less need to keep tapering. On the other hand, the BOJ has diminished its presence in the bond market, so there was a need to give time for banks, individuals and other domestic investors to take our place. Even then, our balance sheet will be reduced at a sufficient pace." ujar Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Penundaan pengurangan pembelian obligasi bulanan sebesar 2 triliun yen ini dinilai tidak akan berubah dalam waktu dekat, meski fleksibilitas pasar tetap dijaga.

"We haven't set in advance how long we will keep buying at 2 trillion yen per month. We believe the reasons we decided to pause our bond taper won't change easily. But that could change depending on progress domestic investors make in adjusting their portfolios. We could change our plan in the future, while being mindful of the need to give markets predictability." tutur Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Uchida menambahkan bahwa perdebatan mengenai komposisi ukuran neraca keuangan bank sentral yang sangat besar masih membutuhkan waktu yang lama.

"In the long term, there may be a time where we would debate the appropriate size and composition of our balance sheet ... But the BOJ's balance sheet is extremely large, and we are still in the phase of trying to slow our purchases without causing disruptions in the bond market. I must say it will be some time away." ucap Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Di sisi lain, ketidakhadiran Kazuo Ueda akibat masalah kesehatan dipastikan tidak mengganggu jalannya pengambilan keputusan penting ini.

"I feel sad about his absence, but it did not affect our ability to set policy," kata Shinichi Uchida, Wakil Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Sebelumnya, Ueda sempat menyampaikan pandangannya mengenai urgensi pembahasan suku bunga jika risiko kenaikan harga melebihi risiko aktivitas ekonomi.

"Even if the situation remains unclear, should it be judged that upside risks to prices outweigh downside risks to economic activity, it will be necessary to thoroughly discuss the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate," kata Kazuo Ueda, Gubernur Bank of Japan.

Ekonom Jepang, Jesper Koll, menilai kebijakan darurat sudah tidak diperlukan lagi karena Jepang kini berada dalam siklus kenaikan inflasi setelah mengalami deflasi selama dua dekade.

"Emergency/crisis management monetary policy is no longer needed and the BOJ wants to get back to a normal monetary policy," kata Jesper Koll, Ekonom Jepang.

Kenaikan suku bunga ini juga dinilai mencerminkan adanya pandangan bahwa nilai mata uang yen yang terlalu murah tidak akan memberikan dampak buruk bagi negara.

"There has been a sense that the yen is too cheap and that raising its currency will not hurt," kata Ulrike Schaede, Profesor Bisnis University of California San Diego.

Meskipun demikian, Schaede mengisyaratkan bahwa fenomena yang terjadi pada bank sentral Jepang saat ini dapat menjadi sebuah indikasi dari adanya penataan ulang global.

"a slow global realignment," kata Ulrike Schaede, Profesor Bisnis University of California San Diego.